Into the April, the main countries in northern hemisphere will be entered into the spring season phase, including spring wheat, corn, rice, rapeseed, cotton and other major crops of the spring, it will promote the further growth of demand for fertilizers, and makes the global fertilizers supply constraints problem more outstanding, or will affect the fertilizers of global pricing around the degree of shortage in the short term. In terms of production for the southern hemisphere, the real fertilizer supply tension will start about in August this year from the start growing corn and soybeans of Brazil and Argentina.
But the expectation is accompanied by the introduction of the fertilizer supply security policy by multinational, by locking the price in advance, and increasing agricultural production subsidies to stable spring production situation, easing the burden on farmers' production input, to ensure that the planting area of losses to a minimum. From the medium term, you can see in Brazil in order to encourage enterprises to increase production capacity, and so as to promote domestic fertilizer mining New Deal implementation methods such as raw materials, to achieve its domestic fertilizer reduce import dependency.
The current high fertilizer cost has been fully factored into the actual agricultural production cost in the international trade market. This year India's potash procurement contract price rose sharply $343 than that of last year, hit a 10-year high; Its domestic CPI level rose to 6.01% in February, above its medium-term inflation target of 6%. At the same time, France also estimated the inflationary pressure brought about by rising food and energy prices, and set the inflation target in the range of 3.7%-4.4%, much higher than the average level of last year. In essence, the problem of tight supply of chemical fertilizers is still the sustained high price of energy commodities. The production willingness of chemical fertilizer manufacturers in various countries under the pressure of high cost is relatively low, and instead, the situation that the supply rises and the supply exceeds the demand. This also means that in the future, the inflationary spiral formed by price transmission will still be difficult to alleviate in a short period of time, and the increase in agricultural production input under the superposition of fertilizer costs is only the beginning.
Post time: Mar-25-2022